Life-course Causal Models

The exposome-wide life-course models will link environmental exposures and molecular signals from the foetal period to old age for cardio-metabolic disease risk and assess causality conditionally on time resolved measurement informing on prior causal structures.

Blocks of variables will be combined with respect to the life stage they correspond to, and will be modelled with health trajectories across the life-course. The blocks of data will include demographic (e.g. age, sex, income), genetic, time-varying environmental exposures, molecular mediators (internal exposome) and life-stage specific cardio-metabolic health outcomes. Variables will be analysed simultaneously to determine the causal pathways or networks by which such (combinations of) exposures affect circulatory and cardio-metabolic health trajectories or disease onsets.

The modelling approach relies on in-house, open-source software based on Bayesian structural equation models with variable selection which was developed within the DynaHEALTH project and has already proved useful in life-course modelling.

Timescale for completion: Winter 2024


Description of TRL levels

  • TRL 1 – Basic principles observed
  • TRL 2 – Technology concept formulated
  • TRL 3 – Experimental proof of concept
  • TRL 4 – Technology validated in lab
  • TRL 5 – Technology validated in relevant environment
  • TRL 6 – Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
  • TRL 7 – System prototype demonstration in operational environment
  • TRL 8 – System complete and qualified
  • TRL 9 – Actual system proven in operational environment